WeatherAction major foreast breakthrough – new predictions of polar stratospheric warmings

Posted on http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=511&c=5 Piers Corbyn wrote:

“If our new advance works – and we are 90% confident of it – that will be a significant breakthrough in predicting major polar sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and consequential dangerous N Hemisphere winter extreme events months ahead to within a few days.

“It is important for the public to understand that while we at WeatherAction make revolutionary forecast advances which can and do save lives the deluded CO2 warmist sect, who can forecast nothing in long-range and control most media and public ideology will continue to make-up scientifically cretinous CO2-based explanations for everything which does or doesnt happen to justify organised theft from the public in terms of  energy price hikes to pay for wind-farms and other green madness.
“They will continue to suppress our warnings and put their self-serving new religion ahead of helping humanity and evidence-based science. THIS is the year to terminate the deluded warmist sect and bring in evidence based accountable science and policies. Thank you.”
[…]
NEWS REPORTS IN WeatherAction 30day JAN 2013 forecasts – public information
Europe WeatherAction Dec forecast won through – Report twitpic.com/brwxlq/full  
Brit+Ire WeatherAction Dec forecast wins battle of Britain – Report http://http://twitpic.com/brx0hw/full
USA WeatherAction Dec Extremes forecast ‘brilliant’ Report twitpic.com/brx1gi/full 
1. WHERE IS THE SUN & WINTER GOING?
There have increasing discussion recently on the outlook for the state of the Sun in coming months/years and NH winter, so some comments from Piers:
THE SUN (further to eg questions from Russ and Laurel)
http://www.spaceweather.com/   (28Dec) carries a NOAA graph which it is clear had absurdly overestimated solar activity in the current cycle 24. I would say:
1. Looking at those NOAA predictions they were obviously daft with abrupt changes in smoothed slope and curvature which makes one wonder what procedures they used to make these estimates.
 2. Low solar cycles generally are longer than strong ones so even though some are saying the peak of 24 may have now passed it is reasonable to expect another (low) peak in this cycle – maybe around turn of 2013-14.
NOTE in an even cycle the activity – temp correlation is much weaker than in an odd cycle. So even if sunspot numbers go up by some amount there can still be plenty of solar-lunar driven extra cold.
NH WINTER. (Note posts with serious factual errors on this topic are not posted)
1. The ideas that NH winter is defined mainly by what happens in England in December, and that the standard models are reliable more than 6 or 7 days ahead are daft.
2. Recall in Dec the message from standard models was “The NAO is tanking, a supercold blast is coming to Britain” WeatherAction said: “Nope, extreme cold may be near but it wont get here like that, in fact it will turn mild (even very mild in parts) especially in Eire and SW England with N/E colder than S/W”. Standard models failed 7 days ahead and WeatherAction was proved right. See: WHAT A SWITCH! TwitPic 13 Dec: http://twitpic.com/blmwfh/full & http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews12No48.pdf
3. We cannot conclude much from current models about Br+Ire or anywhere. Standard Met models just cannot be relied on 7d ahead. There is plenty more winter left to happen all over the NH!
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